A Nonlinear Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

We present an economically motivated two–factor term structure model that generalizes existing stochastic mean term structure models. By allowing a certain parameter to acquire dynamical behavior we extend the two–factor model to obtain a nonlinear three–factor model that is shown, in a deterministic version, to be equivalent to the Lorenz system of differential equations. With reasonable parameter values the model exhibits chaotic behavior. It successfully emulates certain properties of interest rates including cyclical behavior on a business cycle time scale. Estimation and pricing issues are discussed. Standard PCA techniques used to estimate HJM type models are observed to be equivalent to dimensional estimates commonly applied to 'spatial data' in nonlinear systems analysis.
It is concluded that techniques commonly used in the analysis of nonlinear systems may be directly applicable to interest rate models, offering new insights in the development of these models. Tests of nonlinearity in interest rate behavior may need to focus on long cycle times.     

The Wheat War of 1994

Following the signing of the 1989 Canada–United States Free Trade Agreement, sales of Canadian wheat to the United States grew rapidly. This resulted in a series of trade disputes, culminating in an investigation by the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) into the impacts of U.S. imports of Canadian wheat on the U.S. wheat farm program. A USITC finding of "material interference" would have led to a recommendation to implement tariffs or quantitative restrictions against Canadian wheat under Section 22 of the U.S. farm program legislation. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) claimed such material interference, but the U.S. flour millers, pasta makers and grain handlers, along with Canadian grain industry interests, testified that the true effects of imports are in the order of one–tenth of the effects claimed by the USDA. USITC staff analysis led to intermediate estimates of effects. This study explores the impacts of Canada–U.S. wheat trade on U.S. wheat prices and program costs, explains some of the differences in measured effects, and reports the outcome of the dispute.     

A better auction mechanism, and why governments should sell futures rather than debt

The mechanism by which governments sell debt at auction imposes unnecessary risks on primary dealers, who charge for these risks by bidding less. A better auction mechanism would increase the price at which governments sell their debt. Further, selling a specially designed futures contract would reduce dealers'balance sheet usage, again increasing revenue, and would also permit the authorities to match cash inflows with cash outflows.     

The effects of unions on research and development: an empirical analysis using multi-year data

A link between unionization and research and development rates (research and development expenditures divided by output) is tested for in thirteen aggregate Canadian industries. A balanced panel of thirteen industries covering 1968 to 1986 reveals a negative relationship between industry unionization rates and research and development. The results hold when a number of techniques are used to control for unobserved industry heterogeneity and non-linear responses to unionization. In an industry that moves from the 25th to the 75th percentile of unionization, research and development is predicted to fall by about 40 per cent. JEL Classification: J51
Les effets des syndicats sur l'intensité de la recherche et développement: une analyse empirique sur plusieurs années . Ce mémoire examine le lien entre le degré de syndicalisation et les taux de dépenses en recherche et développement en proportion de la production dans treize industries canadiennes. Pour ces treize secteurs industriels, entre 1968 et 1986, il semble qu'il y ait une relation négative entre les taux de syndicalisation et les taux de dépenses en recherche et développement. Ces résultats sont robustesmême quand on utilise des techniques pour tenir compte de l'hétérogéneité des secteurs et des réponses non linéaires à la syndicalisation. Pour une industrie qui voit son taux de syndicalisation passer du 25e au 75e percentile, on prévoit une chute de 40% dans la recherche et développement.     

Measuring Employment Security in Europe Using Surveys of Employers

Using results from surveys in which employers were questioned about their freedom to shed staff, we develop a measure of employment security in Europe. We seek to identify which institutional factors are correlated with the responses of employers and find that they appear to reflect the strength of legal restrictions and trade unions and the prevalence of atypical employment. Our results are used to compile an index of employment security that has both a temporal and a cross‐country dimension.     

R&D strategies and variable demand

This paper looks at some of the factors imposing on the resourcing of R&D in the face of fluctuating demand. R&D has various features that differentiate it from other aspects of corporate activity and consequently managerial strategies for dealing with R&D may vary substantially. The implications for R&D strategies and the acquisition of technology are considered under different demand conditions. Various alternative strategies are developed including contracting out, technology licensing and the maintenance of an in-house facility through labour hoarding. New and existing empirical estimates are used to support the arguments and explain corporate strategy in this area.     

The innovation value chain

The challenges of coming up with fresh ideas and realizing profits from them are different for every company. One firm may excel at finding good ideas but may have weak systems for bringing them to market. Another organization may have a terrific process for funding and rolling out new products and services but a shortage of concepts to develop. In this article, Hansen and Birkinshaw caution executives against using the latest and greatest innovation approaches and tools without understanding the unique deficiencies in their companies' innovation systems. They offer a framework for evaluating innovation performance: the innovation value chain. It comprises the three main phases of innovation (idea generation, conversion, and diffusion) as well as the critical activities performed during those phases (looking for ideas inside your unit; looking for them in other units; looking for them externally; selecting ideas; funding them; and promoting and spreading ideas companywide). Using this framework, managers get an end-to-end view of their innovation efforts. They can pinpoint their weakest links and tailor innovation best practices appropriately to strengthen those links. Companies typically succumb to one of three broad "weakest-link" scenarios. They are idea poor, conversion poor, or diffusion poor. The article looks at the ways smart companies - including Intuit, P&G, Sara Lee, Shell, and Siemens- modify the best innovation practices and apply them to address those organizations' individual needs and flaws. The authors warn that adopting the chain-based view of innovation requires new measures of what can be delivered by each link in the chain. The approach also entails new roles for employees "external scouts" and "internal evangelists," for example. Indeed, in their search for new hires, companies should seek out those candidates who can help address particular weaknesses in the innovation value chain.